Presidential poll null and void – Onovo, AA candidate

Presidential poll null and void – Onovo, AA candidate

From AKIN ALOFETEKUN, Minna
Saturday, April 30, 2011

• Onovo Photo: Sun News Publishing

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Even though the April 16 Presidential Election result, as declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission) INEC was described as no victor no vanquished by President Goodluck Jonathan, who was declared winner, the Action Alliance (AA) is having a different opinion following its feeling of exclusion in the exercise.

According to its presidential candidate, Engr. Martin Onovo, the fact that INEC unilaterally excluded not only his name from the presidential election, but also all candidates of the party in all elective positions across the country, impinged on the credibility of the exercise.

In this interview, Onovo expresses his party’s grievances over its exclusion by INEC.

What is your assessment of INEC performance in the elections?
INEC performance is completely unacceptable because it was marred by several deviations and inadequacies. The most important and fundamental deviation is the lawlessness of INEC, which deliberately, mischievously and corruptly violated the laws govern elections in Nigeria particularly the electoral act.

What are you saying? How did INEC violate the laws that govern elections?
The first thing is that we have to know what the Electoral Act says. The electoral Act says INEC has no authority to exclude candidates nominated by political party. Prof. Attahiru Jega, the INEC chairman had, in one of his press conferences before the election, reiterated the same, saying that unless there was a court order restraining any candidate, INEC cannot reject candidate of any political party. Now, there is no court order against the candidates of Action Alliance, but INEC went ahead and excluded all Action Alliance candidates for all positions across the country from the National Assembly elections to that of the Presidency. INEC excluded all Action Alliance candidates in the elections with no exception. Also, INEC violated the laws of election finance limit by permitting the incumbent to fund electioneering or campaign with questionable funds, which was well beyond the limit set by law. This is a fundamental requirement for free, fair and credible elections. In addition to that, our party Action Alliance, went to court, in its normal compliance with the rule of law and got a court order, which directed INEC to list its candidates to participate in the National Assembly election, but INEC violated that order and refused to list the party’s candidates.

We have another case in court against INEC, and while the case was pending, INEC went ahead and conducted elections, which also excluded candidates of Action Alliance. INEC has, therefore, violated very fundamental and significant laws for free, fair and credible elections, and has continued to maintain itself as lawless having conducted a charade, which it’s pretending to be an election and that charade is morally and legally null and void. With the unlawful exclusion of all Action Alliance candidates in the entire country, the obvious bias of INEC, which was documented by the conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) in a protest letter signed by Willy Ezeugwe, the gross violation of the Electoral Act particularly on election finance limit, violation of court orders, wild spread rigging by falsification of results, fraudulent, corrupt and unlawful proxy voting, abuse of the military and the law enforcement agents and collation fraud made the entire exercise unlawful and illegal to be acceptable.

President Goodluck Jonathan and INEC chairman, prior to the election, pledged to ensure free, fair and credible polls. In your opinion, did they redeem that pledge ?
The first fundamental requirement for free, fair and credible elections, as I said before, is compliance with the law. The law is the basis of the human socio-political elections. The law is the fundamental basis and if the foundation is destroyed, what can the righteous do? No person, in his right senses, can describe the elections as free, fair and credible. In the presidential election, for example, the Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP) had a court order against it and its candidate withdrew, but it was listed in the ballot paper, even though its candidate withdrew. But Action Alliance that has no court order against it was not listed in the ballot paper, and this is how Nigeria has continued to dysfunction in a very incomprehensible manner and we cannot continue to tolerate this. The promise of the president and that of the INEC chairman are obviously established as false promises. The election, therefore, is not acceptable because it is null and void in law and in morality.

Are there other ways you believe Prof Jega and INEC got it wrong?
The whole process was wrong, from the inception of voters registration exercise and starting with the use of old same staff that Prof. Maurice Iwu, immediate past INEC chairman and Jega, who was a consultant in 2007, used. The same old staff that were used in 2007 by the old INEC, which Prof. Jega was, however, part and parcel of are also being used in the current elections without anyone being redeployed or reassigned. These were the same people who committed treasonable offence against this country in what they called 2007 elections, which the major beneficiary the late President Umar Yar’Adua described as fraud. This same people were allowed to participate in the preparation and conduct of the 2011 elections.

So from the very beginning and from the deceit of direct capture machines, which INEC claimed would stop people from multiple registration but which had no capacity to do that, even though it was restated by Prof Jega himself to the Senate but it was a misleading position and claim which would have made him resign if it were in other countries. But he did not resign; rather he went ahead and committed many more fundamental and unacceptable atrocities from the point of view of the law, such as ignoring completely the law about election finance limit because it favoured the incumbent president, who has access to state resources. INEC also completely ignored the law about exclusion and he went ahead deliberately to pre-rig the election by excluding the candidates of Action Alliance. But if we had gone behind or had struck a deal with the incumbent, I am pretty sure that the Action Alliance would have been included in the ballot. The CNPP wrote a formal protest letter signed by Willy Ezeugwu about INEC bias and it not being clearly independent. How can you, therefore, have free, fair and credible election when the umpire is not independent? How can, for example, Rangers International Football Club play against Rancha Bees when a Rangers fan is the referee? So the whole election was fundamentally flawed from the very beginning.

Why would INEC remove the name of your party?
Well, I would have asked you to go to INEC to find out, but I will tell you what I know, which is that our national chairman Senator Suleman Salawu, went with all our nominations on January 31, 2011 by 2pm to INEC office for submission and obtain clearance. INEC received the nominations on that day but failed to issue clearance, stating, later in the day, that we were late. How could we have been late at 2pm on January 31? As the matter was believed to have been settled, INEC published in several newspapers that 11 political parties, including Action Alliance, had been admitted. In Saturday Sun Newspaper of February 5th 2011 with the caption: 8 parties shut out of April polls. In that report, INEC clearly stated that 11parties had been admitted and those 11 parties included Action Alliance. So INEC has been inconsistent with its own stories.

The same INEC subsequently claimed that there are factions in our party. None of these allegations of INEC, to say the fact, is true, even as INEC itself has not be able to substantiate or prove any beyond reasonable doubt. The most annoying part of the whole thing is that INEC corruptly sponsored a Phantom faction of known members of PDP. If you go to INEC website, including the updated one, you will find out that it clearly lists Senator Suleman Salawu as the national chairman of Action Alliance (AA), who was the very person that went with all our nominations for all positions numbering about 89, including that of the presidential candidate, which is myself and that of several governorship, senatorial and other national and state Houses of Assembly candidates to INEC office for submission.

The so-called INEC has inconsistently and corruptly continued to change its own stories from alleging that we were late to saying that there are factions in our party and by sponsoring known members of the ruling party to claim that they are faction of our party. None of these groups that claim to be factions of our party has neither secretariat, office or candidates.

INEC deliberately decided to exclude every credible candidate from the election, even as some of the so-called opposition are spurious parties sponsored by the ruling party that are used to legitimise fraud. Immediately after the election, they would shout it was free and fair and that they have conceded defeat, which is what they are sponsored for. If Action Alliance had agreed to play such role, we wouldn’t have been excluded.

What measures have the leadership of Action Alliance taken to make INEC realise its disapproval of such exclusion?
The leadership of the party has taken many steps. The first was that on February 2, 2011, we wrote a formal protest letter to INEC chairman complaining about the attempt to exclude all our candidates in the election. This letter, which we have the acknowledgment copy has not been replied till date. Again, we had had several meetings with INEC leadership, three of which I participated in these meetings, we had agreed with INEC leadership that our nominations would be accepted with clearance issued, which, however, INEC never redeemed. Again on February 18, we filed a suit against INEC and as the National Assembly elections were approaching; we went to court again and got an order directing INEC to list our candidates and allow them to participate in the National Assembly elections but INEC violated this court order. Is that not lawlessness? Every society is built on laws, except in a jungle where there is no law and where might is right. There can be no free, fair and credible elections outside the law. The definition of free and fair is as established in law. So once the laws are violating, you are outside the boundaries of free and fair election. Therefore, what INEC has organized is not an election but an unlawful charade, a treasonable waste of public resources that amount to economic sabotage and treasonable felony. That is what INEC has done and it is completely unacceptable.

What is the possibility of justice prevailing in this case?
Justice will prevail. I can tell you this. Slavery was defeated; colonialism was defeated; racism was defeated; apartheid was defeated and this’ criminocratic’ system will equally be defeated; you can be sure of that. We are going to pursue justice until we get it.

The involvement of members of the academia in the elections has been commended by a cross-section of Nigerians. In your own view, what impact did their involvement make in the entire electoral process?
Well, to me, their participation did not make any meaning or special impact, only that they are qualified to participate because we do not believe in occupational bias. The people who have qualified to hold those positions, irrespective of occupation, can hold them and act according to the law. It is very clear that INEC as an organization has acted outside the law. The elections were conducted outside the law or unlawfully. Because INEC is lawless, election conducted by it is unacceptable and null and void morally and legally.

How did the 2011 election differ from previous ones held in the country?
During the actual election, security was robust, which is good but it became worse when the military and other security agents were corrupted and became partisan. In Enugu State, for example, a governorship candidate and his supporters were arrested. Also in Edo State, where an opposition party is in government, supporters and agents of the opposition government were equally arrested and the Governor of Edo State never minced word when he accused the military of being partisan. This was how the robust security was corrupted again to become something more dangerous. With the corrupt and partisanship of the military and other law enforcement agents, there professionalism have been lost.

In your opinion, what is the future of Nigeria’s unity considering what is happening in the country today?
Nigeria will remain united, a good country and will function very well, but these corrupt and lawless deviations we have today need to be corrected.

What then is the way forward for Nigeria?
The way forward for Nigeria is a political solution that has to be agreed on by the political leadership of the entire country. But a few bold and great patriots have already made some recommendations for consideration. Prof. Ben Nwabueze, Nigeria foremost constitutional lawyer, has concluded that a revolution is the only way forward. This view was corroborated earlier by Dr. Tunji Braithwaite. Prof. Pat Utomi had called for a stop to the current criminocratic system and he has suggested in its place a government of presidential materials, which he called the Gowon Option and I understand this to mean an interim government. But we must get independent minded people of integrity to conduct elections and ensure that those who wasted several billions on this charade called 2011 election are made to pay for treasonable act.

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/politics/2011/apr/30/politics-30-04-2011-001.htm
news

Martin Onovo ....the presidential Candidate of Action Alliance

Action Alliance: We Are Not Satisfied With Nigeria’s Dismal Records ––– Onovo

Sunday, 06 March 2011 00:00 GBENGA AKINFENWA. 

Martin Onovo is the presidential Candidate of Action Alliance (AA) in the April election. He unfolds his campaign programmes in this interview with GBENGA AKINFENWA.

YOUR party has endorsed you as its Presidential flag bearer, but the issue is that many people don’t really know you. How do you hope to convince people to vote you when they don’t know you?

I disagree with you. Every activist knows me; I have been involved in activism since 1987. I am very well established in civil societies. I am the national leader of the Strategic Union of Professionals for the Advancement of Nigeria (SUPAN), we were part of the vanguard against Third Term, and we have also been part of the vanguard against deregulation. We have been in the struggle against the general national dysfunction.

Compared to the major political parties, Action Alliance seems very obscure. What machinery do you have in place to market your candidacy?

You are wrong, you are definitely wrong. Action Alliance is a very formidable purposive party that has presence across the country. Now, we may not have the structure of the major parties that are financed by corruption, the same problem we are trying to stop. How are those structures created? Multi-storey building offices, how are they funded? We must be very careful, especially in the mass media so that we don’t sell wrong values that what is wrong is right. We may not have all the infrastructural gigantic offices but we have people, which is the ultimate strength and advantage. And the people we have are not commercial people; they are not people who receive salaries in politics, which is what is going on. They are not people we have to sew uniforms for, give stipend and provide transportations for. No, because that is the source of livelihood for them and it is do-or-die. We are talking about reasonable hardworking people who are committed to a change, and the message we have is a message of change and you must not undermine the potency of that message; because the driving forces are stronger than what is driving the changes in the Middle East right now and in North Africa.

We are talking of a country where according to the United Nations Human Development Index Report 2010, life expectancy in Nigeria is put at 48.4; we are talking about a country, which exports energy but has the lowest per capita power in Africa. If you are comfortable with that, we in AA are not comfortable with that.

Is Action Alliance holding talks with other opposition party(s), with a view to forming a formidable alliance?

We are a key part of the Mega Party; it did not work. We are running, we are talking to so many parties, many parties are willing to endorse us but we are still waiting. Many parties have already endorsed us because it is very clear for all to see who is prepared. What criteria do you want to use? If you want to use vision, it is very clear that Action Alliance has projected the best vision. It is on the Internet, it is on our Website; it is called the Accelerated Development Agenda. Now, we not only told you what we are going to do, we told you how we are going to do it. There are some hard information that if you only think about it you’ll find out that there is no alternative party right now to Action Alliance and that is the message we want to communicate to our people. You were promised 6,000 Mega-Watts of power since 2004, you did not get it. You were told you’ll have it in 2006, you did not get it, this is 2011, and you have not got it. Why don’t you have a re-evaluation of your position?

You claimed that some political parties have formed alliance with your party. Can you name them?

We would not talk for them, we have talked to so many parties, many of them have endorsed us and they would come to the public soon. Very many parties, why because they agree with us. Let me tell you, there is overwhelming agreement in the opposition for a change. The small disagreements you are seeing are about who would hold the touch, because it is a question of who has the capacity to win. Who can easily be sold and that is what we are interested in, but many parties have endorsed us. Some of the candidates are considering stepping down for us and we are moving on, but the key thing is that the message of change has become inevitable.

You lost the Presidential ticket of the National Conscience Party (NCP) to Dele Momodu, was that the cause of your defection?

Well, I joined the Action Alliance previously; I have moved around parties, oh, that is very clear. But let me tell you what is in a party; it is a platform, it is a vehicle. Of the 63 political parties in Nigeria, over 50 are welfarist, that is the fact. The Nigerian Constitution is welfarist, don’t let anybody deceive you. So, it is just about nametag and it is about people you associate with. I disagree with the NCP leadership and I had to leave because they form the majority in the NCP, not in Nigeria and that is the right thing to do. If you want to know, as at 1999, I was a PDP man, but when I realized that the party was not heading for development, it became unrealistic to remain. In 2007, I ran for the Senate on the platform of the Fresh Democratic Party in Lagos West, that is the fact. I won that election and you know how election is conducted in Nigeria; it is not a secret, all over the world they know how elections are conducted in Nigeria.

So, parties are just platforms. Out of all the welfarist parties, because I believe in welfarism, I can work on any of the platforms; it’s about the people and the programmes.

You claim to be a former member of PDP, what drove you from the party?

(Cuts in) Yes in 1999, and I later moved to Fresh Party

What are the structures and programmes of the PDP that sent you packing?

Well, if you go and read the manifesto of PDP, you’ll know that it is welfarist. It is unfortunate, if wrong people take over the right manifesto, then you have to leave. There is nothing wrong with the manifesto of the PDP; the question is, have they done what they say they would do; why do you like to be deceived; you like PDP? Goodluck to you, but Nigeria does not need goodluck and patience. Nigeria needs integrity and diligence.

You’ve desire revolutionary change in the socio-economic, political and other sectors. What are your plans to transform this nation?

My personal plan is to sacrifice myself for the development of my people and that is the religious definition of love– the one who gives himself for the benefit of the beloved. I am using personal resources, I am using personal contact and I have exhausted myself to the limit, for my people because of love.

Now, for the people of Nigeria that we love, we have proposed the Accelerated Development agenda. I don’t want to go personal; there is a presidential candidate that promised a million houses every year. Go and do the arithmetic. That is a false promise.  But why should the people rejoice at such promise, it shows they are not thinking, so they should blame themselves. That is the reality. If anybody accepts that a presidential candidate can build a million houses in a year, the person is not thinking. The budget is N4.23 trillion; it cannot build a million houses in one year please.

What are your blueprints to tackle power, education, security, unemployment, healthcare and other major needs of the Nigerian masses?

Our Accelerated Development Agenda is prioritized. The programmes we have are prioritized. The first one is anti-corruption, you know why? Because waste and corruption are the sources or channels to losing national revenue and to fund our agenda we need to close those channels, otherwise, we can’t fund anything. Our anti-corruption strategy is called the 4Es– Example, Empowerment, Education and Enforcement, because we think that people need to be convinced that corruption is inappropriate, corruption is unethical, corruption is sinful. The leadership must live by example; Senators that argue against minimum wage cannot over-compensate themselves outside the law; that is bad example.

The third thing is Empowerment, if as a Journalist you are underpaid, you are more likely to compromise. People need to be empowered through education, employment, welfare and orientation. The fourth E is Enforcement; because that’s where everybody runs to. They forget that prevention is better than cure. So you can see that we are mentally superior to our opponents.

On energy, I am an energy expert; my first degree from the University of Ibadan is in Petroleum Engineering, my second degree from University of Houston in Texas is in Petroleum Engineering Economics. So I understand the key subject, I understand the energy side, I understand the economy side, I understand the project side and what I have done for a living for over 20 years now is engineering, project management and project economics. The key constraint we have in power is generation. So far in this country, we have been able to distribute what we generate. We believe that in all the considered sources of power, gas power is the best option for us. That does not mean we are excluding others; but in the hierarchy, gas comes first. Nuclear power we lack the technology, it is internationally expensive, politically speaking. We know what is happening in Iran and elsewhere, nuclear power has large capital cost, it has large project delivery circles and it has very high risk. In Nigeria we have very poor ethics and it is very, very dangerous. Now, most of the power plants in Nigeria are actually gas-powered, because our people are used to gas technology, which is one. Number two; there are basic infrastructures in place, number three it is cheaper.

Gas is super-abundant in Nigeria, go and count the number of flares, there is no candidate that understands this subject, this is my area of professional expertise and this is the core problem of Nigeria. If the $25 billion that the party in power spent since 1999, if we spend half of that we will guarantee you a minimum of more than three times the power we have now. And we are going to target four times the power we have today.

On the petroleum sector, downstream is where the problems are today, a bigger problem. Upstream seems to have less problem, all we have to do is to improve the efficiency of our upstream operations. Downstream, we have scarcity of products, Kerosene is subsidized at N50, you cannot get it to buy at N100; corruption, waste, inefficiency, impunity is responsible for that. There are fundamental dysfunctions in Nigeria, one of which is the downstream petroleum sector. Nigeria is the only member of OPEC that is importing refined products, at an acceptable regime. And it doesn’t make sense for us to import what we produce and we have been in this situation since 1999. You must change the leadership, a leadership that does not know what to do or that does not know how to do, has to be changed especially if that leadership is corrupt. We must change that leadership.

Now in the downstream petroleum sector, cost of domestic production of a litre of petrol is about N38.50k in Nigeria; now what the Action Alliance government wants to do is to sell fuel at N38.50k. Do you know how we are going to do that; we’ll boost domestic production capacity, how are we going to boost domestic production capacity? We’ll repair the refineries, we’ll build new ones, we’ll produce enough, we’ll sell at cost recovery price. So, there would be no subsidy and we’ll sell it at N38.50k. If you think it is political rhetoric, go and check Venezuela, they are selling petrol at equivalent of N 4.50k. It is our fellow OPEC member.

How can a government exploit its own people, a government is supposed to support and not to exploit them. That is what we guarantee you and subsequently, once we achieve that we’ll groom domestic production to the level where we’ll export refined products and there is market in the west coast of Africa.

Let’s look at security, unemployment and education too. What do you have in the offing?

Unemployment is the root cause of insecurity. Our strategy is very simple, we would initiate massive infrastructural projects that would employ very many people; and you know what we are going to achieve by that, not just employing people but also improving infrastructure at the same time. So, we are going to put people to work, we are not going to add people to our pay roll, people who do nothing, no, we are not going to do that. We are going to put them to work; they are going to do productive work. So, that is immediate and short-term approach. Now, we’ll improve power to boost industrial capacity. If you look at the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) report, you’ll see that their problem is power. So if we address it, they would have high capacity utilization, companies going to Ghana would no longer go. You must know that by solving one problem, you’ll solve three, if you don’t understand that, you cannot understand our program because our programs very, verystrategic, which address the fundamental causes of the common problems.

We’ll encourage entrepreneurship, so that people would be self employed, very important. We would improve education and training so that our people would be better skilled and more employable; we would encourage agriculture and allied industries. Agriculture alone can absorb all the unemployed people but we are taking a multi-prone approach because it is an emergency.

We would establish new refineries in order to put people to work and not forget the power plants we plan to build; then we are going to promote values. The two key words of our campaign are integrity and diligence, not goodluck and patience. So, we are going to change from to Integrity and Diligence, that’s the change.

The Accelerated Development Agenda (ADA), what is it all about?

The Accelerated Development Agenda is a prioritized program, which identifies the key national issues. We intend to address it hierarchically, that is the difference. And I told you our first priority is anti-corruption and we are not going to waste our time with the past, it is a distraction. We can allow the cases that are going on to go on, but we would start with ourselves, so that we’ll have the moral authority not to condone corruption. The second one is energy, like I told you; the third one is sound education because that is our future. After education is agriculture because we must be able to feed ourselves, we cannot continue to be a beggaring nation, asking for aid and food and yet claiming to be the giant of Africa. We are the giant of corruption and not the giant of Africa. But we will be the giants of Africa immediately the AA is elected.

What are your expectations of the April general elections?

I do not have high expectation because the indices do not look good, but we have time to remedy any deviations and we cannot give up on our country, that’s a fact. I do not think personally that Jega is in control of the situation; I think he’s overwhelmed. I think Jega must take a second look at the root causes of the challenges that INEC is facing because what happens in Nigeria is that we first go ahead and do the wrong thing and start analyzing after, that is lack of planning. When you plan very well, you’ll see your challenges, you’ll see your issues, you’ll see your risks and you’ll take remedial action; that is how to plan properly. But we don’t go ahead and do the wrong thing, even after the court barred some candidates from contesting, INEC went ahead and accepted them and published their names. There are clearly fifth columnists in INEC, our party has reported some of them in a very patriotic manner and that is why I suspect that Jega does not have real control.

Few weeks ago you raised an alarm that there are plans by some INEC officials to undermine the next election. Have you changed you position on this?

No, because we haven’t seen any remedy yet. Look at the number of cases, the polity is already heated up, why would anybody heat up the polity. And let me tell you, if you want peace you’ll work for justice, you heat up the polity through injustice and through corruption, you don’t heat up the polity by telling the truth, we must get our fundamentals right.

You spoke about the dysfunctional nature of leadership in Nigeria, what antidotes against bad leadership do you bring on board?

Very simple, authority and responsibility go together. If you vote a thief to power what you’ll get is criminality, if you vote a violent man to power what you’ll have is violence, if you vote an academic into power what you’ll have is lectures. Nigeria needs to look at itself, what are those things to deal with? Right now in our opinion, it is time to deal with ethical issues with respect to corruption, and then you deal with power. Those are the two key things, when you deal with power you have taken care of the fundamental basic issues for economic development, but before you deal with power you must deal with corruption.

What are those things the Goodluck Jonathan administration is not doing well that you hope to tackle?

They have promoted corruption; that is the first thing. They have been unable to fix power; they have developed evil policies like deregulation to further strangulate our people by importing at outrageous cost, what we can produce locally and what in the past we had produced locally. They have discouraged agriculture by encouraging corruption and people have seen an easy means of making unearned money and people have abandoned work and have run to chase easy, corrupt money from corrupt political leaders. People have also tried to clean their conscience, that everybody is doing it. You can see a few days ago how the PDP celebrated Chief Olabode George, an ex-convict who was coming from a maximum prison, what a shame if you are not embarrassed, I am.

You claim your party is populist and pro-poor. What are your plans for the masses?

Very simple, if you look at our Accelerated Development Agenda, you are going to see that it is targeted at the ordinary people. Don’t forget that our slogan is ‘let the masses live’, it is not because we hate the rich, it is because we realize that in a democracy the poor people are in the majority and if you take care of the poorer people, then you can take care of more people. If we create power, the poorer people who cannot afford big generators would be given a chance to live. So, we provide things communally, when we reduce the price of petroleum products to about N38.50k, the poor people can afford kerosene and Diesel would.
 NEWS

Petroleum Products Prices And Subsidies in Nigeria - Chief Martin Onovo

Lagos — Chief Martin Onovo, a Seasoned Petroleum Engineer And the National Leader of the Strategic Union of Professionals for the Advancement of Nigeria, Supa in This Analytical Presentation Argues, Using Relevant Figures And Data That the Federal Government's Deregulation Policy is Harmful to All, Including Itself...

Background

The prices of petroleum products in Nigeria have been a source of contention and controversy. This paper proposes to clarify the actual total cost by adding the costs of all components in retail supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS a.k.a. Petrol or Gasoline) the most widely demanded and utilized petroleum product. The cost components are; finding, developing, developing, producing, refining, distributing and marketing. The amount of subsidy on the retail price is then determined by the difference between the actual cost and the retail price.

The method adopted for this cost determination is similar to that used by the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the analysis of the actual total cost of gasoline (PMS) in the U.S. It splits the retail cost into the major components cost of crude oil, the cost of refining and marketing and the sum of all taxes. This method is simple and accurate.

The most accurate industry data has been obtained from and confirmed independently for this effort by industry experts. The draft paper was also reviewed and endorsed by several other experts. The data and analysis herein are as at October, 2005. Exchange rate applied is N130/USD.

The Petrol Process

To purchase petrol in Nigeria, we typically drive to a fuel station. The fuel attendant pumps the request quantity and payment is made 'cash, electronically (Value card, Top card, etc) or otherwise.
The Fuel station typically receives its supply from road tankers which have been loaded at an NNPC or other fuel depots. The NNPC depots receive their supply from local refineries through pipelines. Imported petroleum products are evacuated from ocean-going tankers to local depots which then supply to Fuel stations by road tankers.
Local refineries receive their feed crude oil through pipelines iron oil terminals. The crude oil is produced by oil companies from wells in their OMLs (Oil Mining Lease). The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is the senior partner in Joint Venture (JV) oil producing companies. The NNPC manages FGN investments in the JVs.

Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) are a different relationship from Joint Ventures. This determination is based on VB production which represents most of the Nigerian production. PSC production can be similarly treated.
Component Costs

Crude oil is first discovered (exploration), then the discovery is developed (field development) before it can be produced (production operations). It is then refined into petroleum products which are distributed and sold for utilization. The costs of exploration, Field Development Production Operations, Refining, Distribution and Marketing (Retail Sales) are identified herein. The sum of all product cost components is the actual cost of the product.

Exploration Costs
Exploration costs typically include seismic acquisition and interpretation costs. Exploratory well costs can be included in development costs since the exploratory well can be easily converted to a development well. 3D Seismic acquisition costs vary based on contractor, coverage, terrain, time, season, water depth, methods, commercial terms, special considerations, etc. Typical costs range from 20 - 70,000 USD/KM2. Interpretation costs range typically from 2 - 8,000 USD/KM2. We will use 50,000 USD/KM2 as estimated cost of 3D seismic acquisition and interpretation. For a 10 KM2 field 20 million barrels recovery; exploration costs can be estimated to be about - 0.025 USD/Bbl. This is equivalent to, 0.02 N/Litre.

Development Costs

Opportunity development costs depend on field location, size, development philosophy and concept. Development cost will include capital costs of field facilities design, procurement, transportation, installation and commissioning. Cost of wells and pipelines to existing terminals are also included. It will typically vary from 2-5 USD/Bbl.

At the NAPE (National Association of Petroleum Explorationists) annual conference in 2005, offshore development cost was indicated as 5 USD/Bbl. However, historical data for completed projects offshore are closer to 3 USD/Bbl. Onshore development costs are also significantly lower than offshore costs. To averagely represent the entire JV operational environment scenarios (offshore and onshore) this paper will capture development cost as: - 4 USD/Bbl. This is equivalent to, 3.27 N/Litre.


Operation Costs (OPEX)

Current (2005) production operation costs of major oil companies surveyed indicated a range of 1.5-4 USD/Bbl. This includes all overhead costs across relevant functions. This paper will capture OPEX as - 3.0 USD/Bbl. This is equivalent to, 2.45 N/Litre.
Therefore, actual crude oil production cost to the Nigerian JV can then be estimated as:

(0.025 + 4.0 + 3.0) USD/Bbl = 7.025 USD/Bbl.
(0.02 + 3.27 + 2.45) N/Litre = 5.74 N/Litre

Previous government (NNPC) estimates (2000) yielded 5.00 N/litre. The difference in these estimates can be attributed to rising oil industry service costs due to international market dynamics, inflation and/or to estimate basis differences.

For typical refinery yield of 95%; 5.74 N/litre translates to - 6.04 N/litre.
This compensates for volume losses inherent in the crude oil refining process.


Refining Costs

Installed refining capacity in Nigeria stands at 445,000 Barrels per day (BPD).
This is made up of:

Old Port Harcourt Refinery - 60,000 BPD

1. New Port Harcourt Refinery - 150,000 BPD

2. Warri Refinery - 125,000 BPD (Upgraded from 100)

3. Kaduna Refinery - 110,000 BPD (Two trains, 60+50)

Refining cost data from these refineries could not be obtained during our survey. Even when such data is available, they are very unreliable. According to the Nigerian Vice-President during an interview with Thisday newspaper in August 2005, "We have never got correct statistics from NNPC. They will never be able to tell you the correct thing. We have that problem with NNPC".

To estimate refining costs, we can rely on international industry data from similar refineries. Contemporary refining technology is of the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) process like most Nigerian refineries. This process requires fluidizing the solid catalyst and re-circulating it continuously from the reaction section of the cracker to the catalyst regeneration section and back to the reaction section.

Data published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimates Gross Refining and Distribution/Marketing Costs and Profits at $1.00 per gallon in October 2005. Using a 50/50 split as established by historical U.S. cost trends, it can be clearly concluded that Refining costs and profits, account for $0.50 per gallon. This value includes the profits of the refineries.

The estimate can be used for this determination since it is from mostly FCC process based refineries just as most Nigerian refineries. Actual refining costs may be lower in Nigeria since labour costs are significantly lower in Nigeria. $0.50 per Gallon translates to $21/Bbl. We will capture refining costs as $21/Bbl. This is, 17.17 N/Litre.

Distribution Costs

Distribution costs in Nigeria are established by regulation. This is the cost margin allowed for Road Tankers that transport petrol from the depots to the fuel stations. As at October 2005, it was 2.42 N/Litre.

Marketing Costs

Marketing Costs in Nigeria are also established by regulation. This is the cost margin allowed for Oil marketing companies that operate fuel retail stations. As at October 2005, this was, 5.87 N/Litre.

Total Costs

The total cost can then be determined as the summation of all relevant costs components previously estimated viz. Exploration, Development, Production Operations, Refining, Distribution and Marketing.

Total Cost = (6.04 + 17.17 + 2.42 + 5.87) N/Ltre
= 31.50 N/Litre.

Therefore, we can conclude that the average cost of domestic petrol dispensed at retail fuel stations in Nigeria is, 31.50 N/Litre.

Current Official Retail Price

Current retail price as established by regulation has been, N65/Litre since 2005. This regulated price is split to cost components in line with the following benchmarks:

N56.71 - Depot Price
N2.42 - Transportation Margin
N1.15 - Dealer's Margin
N4.72 - Marketing Company Margin
= N65.00 - (Official Retail Price)

Subsidy
Subsidy can be determined as Actual Cost - Sales Price
Consequently, Subsidy = 31.50 - 65) N/Litre
= -33.50 N/Litre (This is a negative subsidy which confirms a profit).


Conclusion
We can confidently conclude that government makes a profit of 33.50 N/Litre on domestic PMP (Petrol) at the current price of 65 N/Litre. This translates to a very high 106% profit.

In addition, the government benefits from royalties, taxes and fees which were not factored in this simplified analysis. When factored, the actual crude cost per barrel to government is significantly less and its profit correspondingly higher.
The claim of subsidies on petroleum products is clearly incorrect
Post Script

This analysis has been deliberately simplified to ensure wider appeal and easy comprehension. A much more detailed and rigorous analysis will be inappropriate for the objective indicated. It will also come to the same conclusion and have only an added academic value.


For imported petrol, this estimate will not apply. Imported petrol has unnecessary additional costs like;

1. International Crude Oil Sale Price and Profit Margins
2. Transportation Costs of Products from source country to Nigeria
3.Port Charges, Taxes and Export duties at source country
4. Insurance costs for transportation
5. Brokerage costs for agents
6. Overhead Costs
To improve domestic supply and reduce cost, the following can be considered:
-Maximise existing local refining capacity utilization.
-Increase existing local refining capacity by building additional refineries.

-Improve JV crude oil development and production efficiency to reduce costs.
There is a large market for petroleum products in West Africa. Nigeria can develop its refining capacity to supply this large market and increase its national revenue and GDP.



NEWS

AIDS....Clinical Briefs about contraception for treatment of dysmenorrhea and menorrhagia.

My brothers and sisters Sex out of wedlock used to be considered a taboo by many, but that is increasingly changing. It is almost fashionable to have a sex partner who is not necessarily recognized by one's family. Parents, friends, colleagues and spouses now encourage others to have sex a source of livelihood. Therefore, we must take the bull by the horn and call evil what it is and fight accordingly. Abstinence is still the best way but where that fails, what is the alternative?  Medical science is also making it possible for people to not only live longer lives, but it is preventing unnecessary loss of lives of our loved ones. If your female relative is bleeding to death and the only solution is contraception what will you do or recommend? If people are having sex constantly and indiscriminately, as in case of our country where men demand sex for employment and academic promotions, where marketers are soliciting more than the next source of paychecks, where young male and female students are acquiring sugar mothers and daddies as if they are going out of style and also to be used to pay their tuition and support their younger girlfriends and boyfriends, but you observe that they are seemingly not worried about HIV or STDs, what will you suggest?   While in Nigeria recently, I noticed that the use of condoms was advertised about every five minutes on radio and on television. In fairness to the proponents of better education on the use and benefits of condoms, it seemed as if sexual promiscuity was being promoted and STDs were minute problems as long as condoms were being used. On the contrary, the use of condoms has actually reduced the rate of sexually transmitted diseases. It is not a cure but it makes a small dent on the magnitude of the problem. I am sure that if proper survey is done, we will find that it has also reduced teenage pregnancy in Nigeria. From a woman's viewpoint, the advertisements are actually doing Nigerians a world of good in a country were sex and witchcraft dominate every conversation.  Nigeria is a country where most men are willing to have sex with anything that moves in a skirt or wrapper. Most of those women have sex now legally from their homes or apartments.  There is no-longer a need to stand on the street corner breathing in fumes from cars, industrial waste, urine, human or animal defecation, smoke from random fires, malfunctioning emission systems and exhaust pipes, gutters ridden with algae, fungi, rotten food, feces, dead rodents and trash.  Many of the women have decided that if they cannot pay anyone to buy employment, they will simply offer sex for the positions if the man does not offer it first. Sadly, that does not always guarantee employment so they resort to witchcraft, soothsayers, fake pastors, their ancestors, or get upset enough to curse the men outside with their nakedness. The level of anger usually determine the method of revenge. Having sex in exchange for a favor, for example, is typical of the marketers for banks who are marketing more than new bank accounts.  Many of the our men in Nigeria or Overseas parade themselves as good husbands to their wives but keep filthy mistresses outside their homes as girlfriends, concubines, lovers or what have you, and pay handsomely to keep them. When the girls find a rich one, they call them jackpots. These men are not faithful to the ladies in or outside the house. They even cheat on the new girlfriends too. Sometimes, they have others who are less demanding elsewhere, in the villages, ready to have 10 children for them if they are not slowed down. The village wives do not always require a church wedding but immediately assign the title of wife to themselves whether the man likes it or not. They rarely abort children and do not ask for condoms. The problem with those is that when their Lagos, Abuja, European or USA husbands visit, they too bring something back to share. Some bring back HIV and dollars; infect them, and have them infect the local Jons.  The process becomes a vicious cycle. The male tramps however, think that condoms are safe, quickly include themselves in the 70%-80% successful users  who are excluded from transmission or acquisition of the deadly diseases. They think it can only happen to others and not them because they are after-all, well fed (fat), strong, muscular, and rich. It just can't happen...they have too much to live for. They have wives, businesses, children, aging parents, and their reputation. So they blank it out of their memory and every now and then, they use a condom that are made from recycled materials or the ones we know here as "irregulars" . Manufacturers know that only the poor westerners and people in third world countries consume the irregulars or the intentionally cheaply made condoms. So they ship them to NAIJA where they rip from the holes, and are so thin that they do not stand a chance with prolonged penetration.    The holes defeat the purpose of their intended use. STDs get transmitted, and pregnancies, abortions and death (PAD) occur. When we step away from from condoms for a moment, we have no other way to prevent PAD than with pills. the added benefit is that they prevent excessive bleeding and anemia which can lead to death. Two very otherwise pleasant women suffer with serious pains and are bed ridden during their monthly periods. I think that if they had recommendations from their Doctors to use pills to curd their discomfort and shrink fibroids (as in the case of two of them), they will jump on the idea instead losing time from their jobs and school.  Therefore, I will suggest that no one should completely destroy the idea of the need for condoms or medication until one has had adequate knowledge of their use. One may not need it but preventing their existence, use or application may pose more detrimental blows on our brothers and sisters who may make less prudent choices in face of temptation or illness respectively. Please see the attachment to this mail.  I will also attempt to paste it below. Philo Nwarueze From: Chief Martin <martin@supanigeria. org> To: NENWEONLINE@ yahoogroups. com Sent: Sun, January 3, 2010 9:23:22 AM Subject: Re: [NENWEONLINE] A ... AIDS   "Generally, when used correctly and consistently, condoms are about 70% effective in protecting against HIV and other Sexually Transmitted Infections." - Dr. Leo. Dear Dr. Leo, Happy New year! Please read the extract from your FMC Keffi AIDS Message again. It INDISCRIMINATELY ranks condoms along with Abstinence and Faithfulness. That will definitely spread AIDS by " giving people a false sense of security and protection" ( false 100% instead of your 70%). Now, all the references I cited are secular and 'scientific' including the US Naval Research Lab. Washington DC and the British Journal of Medicine. I did not cite the Catechism of the Catholic Church! So why did you accuse me of dogmatism?  Why did you misrepresent Jerry's published position? Are you not being unfair, oppressive and tyranical? Should you not apologise to Jerry for such unethical misrepresentation? Why is falsehood glorified technically while truth is called dogmatic even when it is 'Scientific' ? Now to science: If condoms are about 70% effective, it means they are about 30% ineffective. 30% ineffectiveness means statistically that: averagely it will be ineffective once in 3 - 4 equivalent exposures! That once in 3 - 4 equivalent exposures averagely, the user has contacted the incurable HIV. Now, I am sure you can see more clearly how condoms are spreading HIV & AIDS. It is our duty of love to tell the truth to others. I am very happy & proud to be Roman Catholic. That does not erase the fact that I hold a world class Master of Science degree in Engineering with extensive international experience across America, Europe and Africa. I understand Science and its basics. However, I am truly dogmatic in religious issues as true religion must be dogmatic since, God cannot be wrong. QED. Whatever God says is true and the Church is the Oracle of God from the following refs.  "Go and teach all nations" - Mt. 28:19-20. "Whoever listens to you listens to me" - Lk. 10:16. "Simon son of John ... Feed my sheep" - Jn. 21:15-17. "I will give you the keys of Heaven. Whatever you bind on earth is bound in Heaven" - Mt. 16:19. "You are Peter, on this rock I will build my Church. The gates of hell shall not overcome it ..." - Mt. 16:17-20. It is only sinful pride that can make me think that I know better than God and His Church. Thanks for your understanding. God bless all. Chief Martin. On Mon 12/28/09 7:56 AM , leo Chukwuali doclichukwuali@ yahoo.com sent:   "Abstinence from unprotected sexual intercourse, being faithful to a single, uninfected sexual partner, correct and consistent use of condoms, avoidance of transfusion with unscreened blood, avoidance of sharing of sharp objects and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) remain the major means of prevention of HIV transmission. " -Dr Leo I suspect that messages like this from FMC Keffi, are spreading HIV/AIDS by giving people a false sense of security and protection.- -Chief Martin Ezeamama,             Accept my best regards. There is nothing in my message suggesting that condoms are 100% effective in protecting against HIV/AIDS. Generally, when used correctly and consistently, condoms are about 70% effective in protecting against HIV and other Sexually Transmitted Infections. This is captured in the following extracts from your references: 1. "If used properly, latex condoms will help reduce the risk of transmission of HIV infection (AIDS) and many other STDs"...    2. 3 out of 10 women whose husbands are HIV positive and were always using a fresh condom for each intercourse, contracted AIDS. ( 7 out of 10 did not) 3.  1993 Studies by S. C. Weller concluded that Condoms are 69% effective. 4. Study showed a failure rate of 26%. 5. Contraceptive Technology USA Study indicates 87% effectiveness for typical use.             Given the above extracts, which clearly state that condoms are 69% to 87% effective in preventing HIV, I wonder how you arrived at the conclusion that my message is spreading rather than helping to prevent HIV/AIDS. I respect your intelligence and your constructive approach to issues but that is mainly when your views are not beclouded by religious sentiments. However, dogmatism belongs more to Religion than to Science.       Apart from ABSTINENCE and MUTUAL FIDELITY BETWEEN UNINFECTED PARTNERS, no other method of prevention of HIV is 100% effective but this can hardly be captured in a short message as the one under discussion. Even at that, observing those other methods can only prevent (albeit not 100%) rather than spread HIV.       Even Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission (PMTCT) interventions are not 100% effective in preventing HIV infection in the newborn. Without PMTCT, about 37% of newborn babies of HIV positive mothers will be HIV positive. But when PMTCT is properly implemented, only 2% to 5% of such babies will be born with HIV. In a recent study of PMTCT in FMC, Keffi over a 5-year period, only 3.5% of over 500 babies of HIV positive mothers were born with HIV infection. This is better than most reports from other centres in Africa . Our report was presented at the Paediatric Association of Nigeria Conference (PANCONF) in Lagos in January 2009.       Having said all those, Chief Martin, I fully understand the premises on which you made your comments. By His Grace, I am also a practicing Catholic. There is nothing in my message that promotes condoms for contraception even though in the practice of my profession, I have nothing against contraception and indeed offer the full range of contraceptive services to married people. Unplanned and unwanted pregnancies in married women as well as pregnancies too many and too late contribute over 60% of the high maternal mortality ratio in our practice. Maternal death is a catastrophe because it not only means the death of a family but also spells doom to child survival. If contraception to married women can help to prevent these needless deaths, I am professionally compelled to offer contraceptive services. In fact, women are referred to my Clinic for the insertion of desogestrel contraceptive implants. May be I should be more Catholic than that.             The other commentators on the topic did not seem to understand the premises from which the discussion flowed. That was why one of them was far less than constructive in his comments. Statements like:  'all the doctors in Nigeria are just struggling to survive' are simply thoughtless. I reserve my comments except if forced otherwise. He that lives in a glass house should not throw stones except if he is also unwise.      Happy New Year. Dr L.I.Chukwuali (JP) --- On Tue, 12/1/09, Chief Martin org> wrote: On Tue 12/ 1/09 10:22 AM , leo Chukwuali doclichukwuali@ yahoo.com sent: __._,_.___ . __,_._,___

WORLD AIDS DAY...Dr Chukwuali

Federal Medical Centre, Keffi

A goodwill message from the IHVN-FMC Keffi Action Project
On the occasion of theWorld AIDS day, 2009

Dear Compatriots,
Every year, the 1st of December is celebrated globally as World AIDS Day. Since 1988, this day has been set aside for increasing awareness, fighting prejudice and improving education about HIV/AIDS.
The reality of HIV/AIDS can no longer be contested by any rational person. The latest world statistics show that 33.4million people, including 2.1million children, are living with HIV/AIDS, there being 2.7million new infections in 2008 alone. About half of the HIV infections occur before the age of 25 years and kill the victims before they are 35 years. In other words, HIV/AIDS virtually eliminates our youths, our vibrant work force. Overall, 2million people died globally of HIV/AIDS in 2008 and the world has lost 25million people to HIV/AIDS since its discovery in 1981.
Sub-Saharan Africa currently bears 67% of the global HIV/AIDS burden with HIV prevalence rates of up to 23.9% in Botswana and 18% in South Africa.

In Nigeria , 2.6million people, both adults and children, are living with HIV/AIDS. This translates to approximately 20% of the global HIV burden even though Nigeria represents barely 2% of the World’s population.

In Keffi, 9.1% of women attending antenatal clinic as well as 8.6% of prospective blood donors are HIV positive.

Unprotected sexual intercourse with an infected partner, transfusion with infected blood, sharing of sharp objects between infected and uninfected persons and transmission from an infected mother to her unborn or breast-feeding baby remain the major means of transmission of HIV. These are fueled by ignorance, poverty, illiteracy and reckless lifestyles. Abstinence from unprotected sexual intercourse, being faithful to a single, uninfected sexual partner, correct and consistent use of condoms, avoidance of transfusion with unscreened blood, avoidance of sharing of sharp objects and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) remain the major means of prevention of HIV transmission.

The theme of this year’s World AIDS Day is UNIVERSAL ACCESS AND HUMAN RIGHTS. It draws attention to the need for people living with HIV/AIDS anywhere in the world to have unhindered access HIV prevention, treatment, care and support, recognizing this as fundamental human rights.
Frequently, we infringe on the fundamental human rights of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs). Discrimination and stigmatization in whatever form against PLWHAs constitute an infringement on their fundamental human rights and these in turn hinder access to prevention, treatment, care and support. We must respect and protect PLWHAs.

We are hereby called upon to join the fight against HIV/AIDS. Let us provide unhindered access to information on prevention to those who are uninfected and unhindered access to treatment, care and support for people living with HIV/AIDS.

Thank you very much.

Signed by:
Dr Leo Chukwuali (JP)
MBBS, FWACS, FICS.
PMTCT Focal Person.
For the Project Director

IHVN-FMC Keffi Action Project.

THE ACTION PROJECT IS A COLLABORATIVE PROJECT ON HIV/AIDS PREVENTION, TREATMENT, CARE AND SUPPORT BETWEEN THE INSTITUTE OF HUMAN VIROLOGY, BALTIMORE, MARYLAND, USA AND THE FEDERAL MEDICAL CENTRE, KEFFI, NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA. IT IS FUNDED BY PEPFAR.THIS MESSAGE WAS CIRCULATED WIDELY TODAY IN KEFFI AND ENVIRONS.